Archive for August 16th, 2008

August 16, 2008

Obama VP Hagel?

Seems far-fetched, but whatever.

August 16, 2008

Fun with demographics

Here are some interesting Gallup numbers:

  • John McCain leads by double-digit margins among all educational subgroups of white voters except those with postgraduate degrees, where Barack Obama has a double-digit lead.
  • Black voters support Obama by a whopping 90% to 3%.
  • In age subgroups, McCain’s strongest support (47%) is among those 65 or older, while Obama’s strongest support (59%) is among those under 30.
  • White guys love them some Maverick — McCain gets a 22-point margin among white males.
  • Single chicks love them some Hope — Obama gets a 29-point margin among unmarried females.
  • Racist Democrats? McCain gets 14% of the votes of white Democrats.
  • Whistling Dixie? Obama leads by double digits in every region except the South, where McCain leads by 10 points.
  • Ruh-roh: Obama has a 6-point lead in battleground states.

And as of 6:52 p.m. ET, they still haven’t posted the Gallup daily numbers.

August 16, 2008

Question for Edwards supporters

From Deceiver:

The Associated Press looks at Rielle’s final $14,000 payment from the Edwards campaign in April ’07. After the $100,000 he’d already paid her for 15-20 minutes of amateurish video. Question for those few remaining “It was just sex!” holdouts: Do you really think the contributors to the Edwards campaign appreciate the idea that they might have helped him pay for it?


August 16, 2008

Huffy Plouffe

Obama strategist David Plouffe is getting a bit … edgy when Democrats start wondering why St. Hopey is still dead-even with Maverick:

“Democrats should take a deep breath and realize that there are a group of voters who won’t make up their mind about a candidate until deep in the fall,” said David Plouffe, Mr. Obama’s campaign manager. “And there are 18 states that are battlegrounds for a reason, and they’ll be decided by 2 to 4 points. I don’t care about national polls.”

Yeah, you wanna bet 18 states are within the 52-48% range on Nov. 5? I mean, seriously, Georgia?

“The polls will change, but we know we need 200,000 new voters to be competitive in Georgia, and now is when we have to get them.”

OK, I was born in Atlanta, lived there until 1997, still have lots of friends and family down home, and I will guaran-damn-tee you Obama won’t win Georgia. Let’s look at the facts, shall we?

  • Fact: In 2004, George W. Bush got 1.9 million votes and beat John Kerry by 17 points (a margin of more than 500,000 votes) in Georgia.
  • Fact: In 2006, a miserable mid-term year for Republicans nationwide, Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue got 1.2 million votes and defeated Democrat Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor by 20 points (a margin of over 400,000 votes) in Georgia.
  • Fact: In the 2008 Georgia Democratic primary Feb. 5, Obama and Hillary combined got 1.03 million votes.
  • Fact: Not a single poll this year has shown Obama leading in Georgia, and Rasmussen has consistently shown McCain ahead in the 9%-10% range.

I have talked to Georgia Democrats who voted for Hillary — including hard-core yellow dogs I’ve known for decades, who wouldn’t cross the street to piss on a Republican if he was on fire — who express very deep reservations about voting for Obama. Trust me, there will be a certain number of “Hillary Democrats For Barr” votes on Nov. 4.

At this point, Georgia is one of the strongest Republican states in the country — rivaled perhaps only by Oklahoma or Texas — and every dime Team Obama spends there is a dime wasted. I’d bet if national Democratic officials were to talk to Democratic officials in Georgia — e.g., Reps. John Barrow and Jim Marshall — those Georgia Democrats would tell them the same thing.

For Plouffe to talk about “18 states that are battlegrounds … decided by 2 to 4 points” when that list includes Georgia is evidence that Obama’s Chicago HQ has lost touch with on-the-ground political reality.

August 16, 2008

Obama a ‘map-changer’?

One of the big claims of Team Obama, has been that their candidate will run a “50-state strategy” (the pet idea of David Sirota). He is, they say, a “map changer.”

David Plouffe famously named Alaska, Georgia and North Carolina as red-to-blue targets for Obama — but two of those states are currently rated “likely Republican” by Rasmussen, and the third is “leans Republican,” while two major “swing” states (Florida and Missouri) are also still in the “leans Republican” column.

Looking at the Rasmussen state-by-state charts overall, while the Democrat is overall in better shape — as can be expected, given the generic problems for the GOP this cycle — there is not really evidence that Obama’s living up to the “map-changer” hype.

Three Republican “red” states from 2004 (New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado) are currently rated “lean Democrat” by Rasmussen, but three of the more recent four polls show McCain slightly ahead in Colorado, and while Iowa and New Mexico remain problematic for Team Maverick, those two states have only 12 Electoral College votes between them.

Meanwhile, two blue states in the “lean Democrat” column — Pennsylvania and Michigan — remain in play. Obama’s failure to put Michigan out of reach is his biggest vulnerability, and this is mainly due to local political conditions in the state.

What McCain must do to reach 270 Electoral College votes (EVs) and clinch the election is:
  • Hold onto the states currently listed as “lean/likely Republican” (227 EVs);
  • Win the three “toss-ups,” Ohio, Virginia, Nevada (38 EVs);
  • Win Colorado (9 EVs).
That simple formula gets McCain to 274 EVs. If he can add either Pennsylvania or Michigan — he’s got a margin of error in case, for instance, Obama picks Evan Bayh as VP and thus carries Indiana.

Doing all this won’t be easy — Virginia could be a big fight, and Ohio is sure to be a real battleground again — but it is both feasible and simple. It’s not a political longshot, and doesn’t require a lot of complicated “strategery.”

Despite months of adulatory press coverage, Obama is still not at 50% nationally, Maverick is hard on his heels, and that all that Democratic hype about a “50-state-strategy” with a “map-changer” candidate is starting to smell a lot like something that isn’t “Hope.”
August 16, 2008

Hmmm. 3 p.m. and no Gallup

UPDATE 8 p.m. — Finally, the numbers, and no big news: Obama 45%, McCain 44%.

As of this hour, Gallup hasn’t yet posted its daily tracking numbers. Rasmussen has it Obama 46%, McCain 45%, but I’m wondering why it’s taking Gallup so long to go up with their numbers. They were tied at 44% in Gallup yesterday.

4:40 p.m.: STILL no Gallup daily. I’m strongly beginning to suspect they’ve got McCain pushing ahead — since Obama clinched in June, McCain has never led the Gallup daily, which surveys registered (not “likely”) voters — and that they’re holding the news to try to get a Drudge link and a network news push.

August 16, 2008

Obama: $51 million July

When Team Maverick held a conference call Friday to announce they’d raised $27 million in July (plus another $26 million by the RNC), I wrote:

Probably Team Maverick expects Obama to announce huge numbers for July, and so they wanted to get ahead of the story by putting McCain’s numbers in context of the large RNC/state GOP fundraising operation.

Prophetic powers vindicated:

Sen. Barack Obama raised $51 million in July, falling short of his one-month record, but raising enough to end the month with $65.8 million in the bank — a formidable number for the middle of the summer.

By the way, somebody want to explain to me again how Republicans are “the party of the rich”?

(Cross-posted at AmSpecBlog.)

August 16, 2008

Obamascam: TicketGate in Denver

Michelle Malkin detects the scent of bovine manure exuded by St. Hopey’s promise of “first come, first served” tickets to his mile-high apotheosis at Invesco Field:

[I]t appeared the ticket give-away wasn’t as advertised but because the campaign perpetuated the idea that the vast majority of passes would go to regular people of all backgrounds and political beliefs.
Instead, several of those who missed out said they suspect the bulk of the tickets were passed out to people who worked for — or gave money to — the campaign.
“It just makes me angry,” said Katherine Thayer, of Denver. “If they’re going to go out and say it’s first-come, first-served and then turn around and reward people who volunteer or gave money, then they ought to be up front about it.”

Prediction: By this time next week, prime tickets to the Obamatheosis will be going on Craigslist for $200 and up. Just because Democratic bigwigs rant and rave against greedy capitalists doesn’t mean they’ll pass up a chance to make a quick buck.

Folks, if you think you got bamboozled on this “free ticket” scam, just see how long you’ll be waiting for that “middle-class tax cut” he’s promising you. When you volunteer to be a doormat, don’t complain about the footprints on your back.

August 16, 2008

Delusion at Hope HQ

“The polls will change, but we know we need 200,000 new voters to be competitive in Georgia, and now is when we have to get them.”
David Plouffe

Speaking as a native Georgian, Mr. Plouffe, I certainly hope you’ll pour maximum effort into this project. You register all those voters, you run lots of ads in Georgia, and when you’re through pissing away your campaign’s money and manpower on this doomed cause, Georgia will still vote Republican, and the whole world will be laughing at you Nov. 5 if you come up a few thousand votes short in Ohio or Pennsylvania.

Your candidate couldn’t even compete with Hillary Clinton in Kentucky or West Virginia — states with far stronger Democratic trends than Georgia –and yet you persist in the belief that you’re going to win a state where John Kerry finished on the short end of a 17-point deficit?

Quos perdere vult deus dementat prius.

August 16, 2008

Howard Dean’s honky party

Michelle Malkin notes the lack of diversity in the DNC leadership. It’s like a mayonnaise-and-Wonderbread sandwich, with a side order of saltines and vanilla ice cream for dessert. We’re talking blindingly Caucasian — a Barry-Manilow-concert-audience degree of pure, intense whiteness.