Obama: Good-bye, Florida!

Read ’em and weep, Democrats:

Obama allies say he has about 350 paid staffers in the state and about 50 field offices, including in places not known as fertile ground for Democrats, such as Sun City Center, Lake City and Sebring.
But for all the attention to Florida from the Obama campaign, there’s little tangible evidence it’s paying off.
He is farther behind in the state than John Kerry was at this point in 2004, even though McCain began buying Florida TV ads only last week. By this time in 2004, the Bush-Cheney campaign had spent $13-million on Florida TV. In the rolling average of Florida polls compiled by the Web site RealClearPolitics.com, Obama has never taken the lead over McCain in Florida, and the latest average shows him behind by 5 percentage points. They were tied in early August.
Four Florida polls came out this week, with one showing a tied race, the others showing McCain leading by 5 to 8 percentage points.

Three obvious reasons for this:

  • The military vote — Lots of military personnel (especially Navy personnel) and retired veterans in Florida, and they like McCain.
  • The Cuban-American vote — Traditionally Republican, the Cuban vote is rallying to its GOP loyalties after a down cycle in 2006 due to the Mark Foley scandal. Whatever pundits say about Obama’s problems with Hispanic voters, it goes double (or triple) for the Cubans.
  • The geezer vote — Geezers love John McCain. The over-70 vote is his trump card in this election. And you gotta imagine some of the geezers look at Sarah Palin and see either (a) a super-successful woman who exemplifies their ideals, or (b) that hot nurse on the second shift.
Isn’t it amazing that, just eight years after the Gore-Bush deadlock in Florida, Democrats have fallen so low that they can’t even compete there? Hillary, maybe. Obama, no.
You can see the RCP Florida numbers here.

UPDATE: Over at AmSpecBlog, I discuss how the Palin pick has disoriented the Democrats.

UPDATE II: Jim Wooten of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution sees signs of Democratic panic; Commentary‘s Jennifer Rubin warns against GOP overconfidence.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: