Archive for November 1st, 2008

November 1, 2008

Obama, the homophobe

Guess who is the new spokesman for Proposition 8, the California ballot referendum to ban same-sex marriage in California?

Maybe some reporter should ask Obama what he thinks about Proposition 8, and the Christian Right’s use of his statement in support of that measure. Of course, a question like that might get you kicked off the campaign plane.

Thanks to Michael Peterelis, who is gay and Green and doesn’t trust Democrats.

November 1, 2008

Palin barnstorms Ohio

After doing three rallies in Florida and one in North Carolina on Saturday, here is Sarah Palin’s Sunday schedule:

Google Map directions for any hard-core Sarah fans who want to try to cover the whole trip — 334 miles by car. Good luck.

BTW, those times are for door-openings, and I’d advise anyone planning to attend a Palin rally to get there at least a couple hours before those times. The lady really draws a crowd:

November 1, 2008

Maverick & Anna Nicole

Ben Smith suggests they’re “cleaning out the oppo drawer” at Hope HQ, but I don’t see how this hurts the 72-year-old senator:

Hot chicks are not a political liability.

(Cross-posted at AmSpecBlog.)

November 1, 2008

Where they are, where they aren’t

Maybe this will ease Jane Fonda’s nerves:

NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) sends along this observation: “Forget the polls, just look at what the candidates are doing and where they are spending money.” At this time in 2004, he notes, Kerry-Edwards were campaigning in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Florida. In 2000, Gore-Lieberman were in the states of Missouri and Ohio, as well as in Florida. But in 2008, Obama and Biden AREN’T campaigning in Pennsylvania, Minnesota or Wisconsin. Instead, they’re in Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, as well as the perennials of Ohio and Florida. “You do not have to read poll numbers — just look at their travel schedule,” Hart tells First Read. And as we learned yesterday, the Obama campaign is now spending money in Arizona, Georgia, and North Dakota.

The momentum clearly favors the illegal alien’s nephew. And of course, the Blame Sarah First crowd has already picked out their scapegoat. Just in case the Palin-bashers need a reminder, here’s what I wrote on Sept. 8:

Saturday [Sept. 6], Zogby reported McCain-Palin with a 50-46 percent lead over Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden. Sunday morning Rasmussen found the race a dead heat, and Gallup showed McCain pulling ahead 48-45 percent among registered voters — “McCain’s largest advantage over Obama since early May,” Gallup noted. Late Sunday evening, a fresh round of polling from Gallup showed McCain had widened the margin to 4 points among registered voters — and had a whopping 10-point lead (54-44 percent) among likely voters.
As important as the latest numbers were the trends the tracking polls revealed. Obama actually gained in the immediate wake of the Palin announcement, booming ahead by 8 points (Gallup) and 6 points (Rasmussen) as the media slammed the new Republican running mate. However, once America saw Palin speak for herself — in a broadcast whose ratings nearly equaled Obama’s own “Barackopolis” acceptance speech in Denver — voters apparently surged toward the GOP.

Given a chance to speak for herself, then, Palin was an immediate hit, and as I reported from Ohio Sept. 10, she became “The Sweetheart of the Heartland.” By Sept. 15, Democrats were ready to hit the panic button.

What went wrong, then? I’ve explained this several times, but now — as the campaign nears its end — I want to reiterate the narrative once more:

From a 1-point Gallup lead on Sept. 16, McCain went to a 10-point deficit by Oct. 10 — a period of time that covered all three Obama-McCain debates. And it was during that same time period that McCain repeatedly endorsed a big-government approach to the financial crisis. As late as Sept. 24, it was still a three-point race. By Sept. 29 — after McCain’s push for the bailout and after the first debate Sept. 26 — Obama led by 8 points. Attempting to hang this around Sarah Palin’s neck is not merely unfair, it’s absurdly counterfactual. Clearly, she was never consulted in any of these decisions, including the pullout from Michigan.

The McCain’s campaign rejection of “libertarian populism,” its refusal to acknowledge the morality of markets, its preference for economic adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin‘s big-government approach to the financial crisis, was the proximate cause of this impending disaster. I know that thousands are praying for a Republican miracle on Nov. 4, but with Obama up by 10 in the latest Gallup, it’s important to brace yourself for spin from pundits and Republican “insiders” (including McCain campaign staffers who are already aboard the Jeb Bush 2012 bandwagon) who are going to try to make Sarah Palin the scapegoat for a defeat that was not her fault.

UPDATE: Doug Mataconis:

There was absolutely nothing surprising about John McCain’s reaction to the financial crisis, because it was completely consistent with what we’ve been hearing from Senator McCain for years now. He’s never been a champion of the free market, he’s consistently sided with government bureaucracy and with the basic idea that government even needs to step in to situations like this — a position he reiterated in his interview on Meet the Press last Sunday.

In other words, Maverick did what Maverick could be expected to do, and the GOP knew what it was getting when it picked him.

November 1, 2008

Roll Tide!

Alabama went into the 4th quarter with a 28-0 lead over Arkansas State, apparently averting a homecoming letdown the week before the big showdown in Baton Rouge with LSU.

November 1, 2008

October traffic

Live by the Sarah Palin bikini pics, die by the Sarah Palin bikini pics. That’s the moral of October’s traffic at The Other McCain — a healthy 123,837 visitors, nearly 4,000 a day, but no match for the Sarah Palin bikini-driven frenzy of 291K in September.

I reaped the reward of being one of the first bloggers to figure out that “Sarah Palin bikini” was random-Google-traffic gold, filing a post from the smoking lounge at the Denver airport the day after Palin was announced as John McCain’s running mate. The market was soon crowded with imitators, but I was the top Google result for a long time, and suddenly people on my blogroll were e-mailing to ask, “Hey, did you link me? I started getting lots of hits from you, but I can’t figure out what post you linked.”

A thing of beauty may be a joy forever, but Google gold doesn’t last. As attacks on Palin mounted, as McCain slumped in polls, and as the prospect of her becoming vice-president consequently faded, the raw curiosity (or oppo-research interest) in scandalous Palin pics declined. And frankly, Republican-leaning bloggers haven’t been giving me much linky-love since Oct. 2, when Team Maverick pulled out of Michigan and I called the election over.

Well, OK, one down month out of eight. The general trend is still upwards. October’s traffic was 68% higher than August, and if the bikini boost of September caused me to spend less time link-whoring, I didn’t completely slack off in October — 267 posts for the month. That’s an average of nearly 9 new items daily, in addition to my writing and blogging at the American Spectator.

So I’m keeping pretty busy, and the post-election analysis (“Hate vs. Hope: Armageddon ’08”) should drive a lot of traffic. The other day, I had the joy of handing my wife a Google AdSense check — a small reward for months of work, and mostly thanks to the Barracuda:

UPDATE: Instalanche! That’s the way to get November off to a rockin’ start!

November 1, 2008

Abu Jihad al-Masri, R.I.P.

The good guys scored a kill:

An Egyptian Al-Qaeda operative — described by the United States as the terror network’s propaganda chief — was killed in a missile strike in Pakistan, security officials said on Saturday.
Abu Jihad al-Masri was among several rebels killed when two missiles fired by a suspected US spy drone hit a truck in the North Waziristan tribal region bordering Afghanistan on Friday night, they said.
The United States has offered a one-million-dollar bounty for the death or capture of al-Masri, who has appeared in an anti-Western video introduced by Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s number two.
“The strike was aimed at a vehicle carrying Abu Jihad and two others. The target was successfully hit and all three people were killed,” a senior Pakistani security official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

Terrible how we’re losing the War on Terror, eh?

November 1, 2008

Obama’s shrinking middle class

His definition of “middle class” has shrunk steadily:

Via Hot Air, where Ed Morrisey reports that Obama’s definition of “middle class” used to be even lower:

What you see in that brief 54-second clip is Obama’s government-centric view of economics: “The problem was [the Bush tax cuts] weren’t targeted at the short-term stimulus of the economy.” The notion of government “stimulating” the economy short-term, rather than encouraging long-term growth by freeing up capital investment, is the classic Keynesian “pump-priming” fallacy.

The Earned Income Tax Credit that Obama praises as “tax cuts for working families” was originally created as an incentive for very low-income workers, since the total benefits package of the Welfare State (including cash welfare payments, food stamps, public housing, and Medicaid) was — and still is — a disincentive to work.

And Obama, in praising tax cuts for families making $50K-$70K completely ignores the $1,000 per-child tax credit that were part of the Bush tax-cut program. (As a father of six, I especially liked that one).

Then he talks about “the money we’ve given up,” as if the tax cuts actually reduced government revenue. (Hello, Laffer Curve? Total federal revenue increased after the tax cuts!) Obama suggests that the reduced revenues (which weren’t actually reduced) deprive Illinois of “transportation dollars” and “health care dollars.” But nobody is stopping Illinois from increasing state tax revenue to fund such programs. Why should people in Illinois send more tax money to Washington in hopes of getting back a fraction to spend on their “enormous needs”? It’s nuts.

November 1, 2008

Obama by 10?

Bandwagon effect?

Barack Obama leads John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday by an identical 52% to 42% margin among both traditional likely voters and expanded likely voters. Obama leads by a similar 52% to 41% margin among all registered voters.
This is the first time since Gallup began estimating likely voters in early October that there is no difference between Gallup’s two likely voter models. Obama’s lead of 52% to 42% using Gallup’s traditional estimate of likely voting criteria takes into account past voting as well as current intentions. Obama’s identical lead using the expanded model takes into account only current voting intentions.

I’m having a hard time thinking of any particular reason why what was a 2-point race on Monday should have swung so strongly in Obama’s favor in the span of five days. If this Gallup swing is real — if a tsunami of late-deciding voters pushes Obama to a double-digit win — the likely explanation will be bandwagon psychology. The marginal undecided voter wants to vote for the winner.

UPDATE: Allahpundit offers this reminder that miracles do happen:

November 1, 2008

Palin’s special base

The LA Times reports:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin arrived at the Boyer Orchards here Friday afternoon, entering a sweet-smelling wooden barn full of crates of apples. “This is gorgeous,” Palin said, greeting workers.
The visit was designed to highlight small businesses and their special needs and how a John McCain administration would help them.
And the Republican vice presidential candidate did talk business and taxes with Matthew and Bruce Boyer, whose family has owned and worked this 300-acre orchard for 51 years now.
But it was after their business chat that Palin had some special moments with a special fan, Amber Brown. As Palin left the barn, an excited crowd outside was mid-verse singing “God Bless America,” but roared at the sight of Palin.
Brown, who is 23 and from New Paris, held a poster that said: “I have Down’s syndrome and I’m voting for you. I’m a fighter too!”

That kind of cuts through the cynicism, eh?